Skielike klimaatsverandering

'n Skielike klimaatsverandering vind plaas wanneer die klimaatstelsel gedwing word om te verander teen 'n tempo wat bepaal word deur die klimaatstelsel se energiebalans, en wat vinniger is as die tempo van verandering van hierdie eksterne dwang^[1], alhoewel dit kan insluit geforseerde gebeurtenisse soos meteoriet impakte.^[2] Skielike klimaatverandering is dus 'n weergawe erger as die "normale" verandering van 'n klimaat. Vorige gebeure van die aard sluit in die einde van die Karboon-reënwoud-ineenstorting,^[3] die Jonger Dryas,^[4] Dansgaard-Oeschger-voorval, Heinrich-voorval en moontlik ook die Paleoseen-Eoseen termiese maksimum.^[5] Die term word ook binne die konteks van klimaatsverandering gebruik om skielike klimaatsverandering te beskryf wat oor die tydskaal van 'n menslike leeftyd waarneembaar is, moontlik as gevolg van terugvoerlusse binne die klimaatstelsel.^[6] of kantelpunte.

Tydskale van gebeure wat as 'skierlik' beskryf word, kan dramaties verskil. Veranderinge aangeteken in die klimaat van Groenland aan die einde van die Jonger Dryas, soos gemeet in yskerne, impliseer 'n skielike opwarming van +10 °C binne 'n tydskaal van 'n paar jaar.^[7] Ander skierlike veranderinge is die +4 °C in Groenland 11 270 jaar gelede.^[8] of die skielike +6 °C opwarming 22 000 jaar gelede in Antarktika.^[9] Daarenteen kan die Paleoseen-Eoseen termiese maksimum enige plek tussen 'n paar dekades en 'n paar duisend jaar begin het. Laastens projekteer Aardstelselwetenskapmodelle dat onder voortdurende kweekhuisgasvrystellings so vroeg as 2047, die Aarde se naby-oppervlaktemperatuur kan afwyk van die omvang van variasie in die afgelope 150 jaar, wat meer as 3 miljard mense en die meeste plekke van groot spesiediversiteit op Aarde sal beïnvloed.^[10]

Verwysings

↑ Harunur Rashid; Leonid Polyak; Ellen Mosley-Thompson (2011). Abrupt climate change: mechanisms, patterns, and impacts. American Geophysical Union. ISBN 9780875904849.
↑ Committee on Abrupt Climate Change, National Research Council. (2002). "Definition of Abrupt Climate Change". Abrupt climate change : inevitable surprises. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press. doi:10.17226/10136. ISBN 978-0-309-07434-6.
↑ Sahney, S.; Benton, M.J.; Falcon-Lang, H.J. (2010). "Rainforest collapse triggered Pennsylvanian tetrapod diversification in Euramerica". Geology. 38 (12): 1079–1082. Bibcode:2010Geo....38.1079S. doi:10.1130/G31182.1.
↑ Broecker, W. S. (Mei 2006). "Geology. Was the Younger Dryas triggered by a flood?". Science. 312 (5777): 1146–1148. doi:10.1126/science.1123253. ISSN 0036-8075. PMID 16728622. S2CID 39544213.
↑ National Research Council (2002). Abrupt climate change : inevitable surprises. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press. p. 108. ISBN 0-309-07434-7.
↑ Rial, J. A.; Pielke Sr., R. A.; Beniston, M.; Claussen, M.; Canadell, J.; Cox, P.; Held, H.; De Noblet-Ducoudré, N.; Prinn, R.; Reynolds, J. F.; Salas, J. D. (2004). "Nonlinearities, Feedbacks and Critical Thresholds within the Earth's Climate System" (PDF). Climatic Change. 65: 11–00. doi:10.1023/B:CLIM.0000037493.89489.3f. hdl:11858/00-001M-0000-0013-A8E8-0. S2CID 14173232. Geargiveer vanaf die oorspronklike (PDF) op 9 Maart 2013.
↑ Grachev, A.M.; Severinghaus, J.P. (2005). "A revised +10±4 °C magnitude of the abrupt change in Greenland temperature at the Younger Dryas termination using published GISP2 gas isotope data and air thermal diffusion constants". Quaternary Science Reviews. 24 (5–6): 513–9. Bibcode:2005QSRv...24..513G. doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2004.10.016.
↑ Kobashi, T.; Severinghaus, J.P.; Barnola, J. (30 April 2008). "4 ± 1.5 °C abrupt warming 11,270 yr ago identified from trapped air in Greenland ice". Earth and Planetary Science Letters. 268 (3–4): 397–407. Bibcode:2008E&PSL.268..397K. doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2008.01.032.
↑ Taylor, K.C.; White, J; Severinghaus, J; Brook, E; Mayewski, P; Alley, R; Steig, E; Spencer, M; Meyerson, E; Meese, D; Lamorey, G; Grachev, A; Gow, A; Barnett, B (Januarie 2004). "Abrupt climate change around 22 ka on the Siple Coast of Antarctica". Quaternary Science Reviews. 23 (1–2): 7–15. Bibcode:2004QSRv...23....7T. doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2003.09.004.
↑ Mora, C (2013). "The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability". Nature. 502 (7470): 183–187. Bibcode:2013Natur.502..183M. doi:10.1038/nature12540. PMID 24108050. S2CID 4471413.

[1] Harunur Rashid; Leonid Polyak; Ellen Mosley-Thompson (2011). Abrupt climate change: mechanisms, patterns, and impacts. American Geophysical Union. ISBN 9780875904849.

[def2-2] Committee on Abrupt Climate Change, National Research Council. (2002). "Definition of Abrupt Climate Change". Abrupt climate change : inevitable surprises. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press. doi:10.17226/10136. ISBN 978-0-309-07434-6.

[SahneyBentonFalconLang_2010RainforestCollapse-3] Sahney, S.; Benton, M.J.; Falcon-Lang, H.J. (2010). "Rainforest collapse triggered Pennsylvanian tetrapod diversification in Euramerica". Geology. 38 (12): 1079–1082. Bibcode:2010Geo....38.1079S. doi:10.1130/G31182.1.

[Broecker-4] Broecker, W. S. (Mei 2006). "Geology. Was the Younger Dryas triggered by a flood?". Science. 312 (5777): 1146–1148. doi:10.1126/science.1123253. ISSN 0036-8075. PMID 16728622. S2CID 39544213.

[5] National Research Council (2002). Abrupt climate change : inevitable surprises. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press. p. 108. ISBN 0-309-07434-7.

[6] Rial, J. A.; Pielke Sr., R. A.; Beniston, M.; Claussen, M.; Canadell, J.; Cox, P.; Held, H.; De Noblet-Ducoudré, N.; Prinn, R.; Reynolds, J. F.; Salas, J. D. (2004). "Nonlinearities, Feedbacks and Critical Thresholds within the Earth's Climate System" (PDF). Climatic Change. 65: 11–00. doi:10.1023/B:CLIM.0000037493.89489.3f. hdl:11858/00-001M-0000-0013-A8E8-0. S2CID 14173232. Geargiveer vanaf die oorspronklike (PDF) op 9 Maart 2013.

[7] Grachev, A.M.; Severinghaus, J.P. (2005). "A revised +10±4 °C magnitude of the abrupt change in Greenland temperature at the Younger Dryas termination using published GISP2 gas isotope data and air thermal diffusion constants". Quaternary Science Reviews. 24 (5–6): 513–9. Bibcode:2005QSRv...24..513G. doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2004.10.016.

[8] Kobashi, T.; Severinghaus, J.P.; Barnola, J. (30 April 2008). "4 ± 1.5 °C abrupt warming 11,270 yr ago identified from trapped air in Greenland ice". Earth and Planetary Science Letters. 268 (3–4): 397–407. Bibcode:2008E&PSL.268..397K. doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2008.01.032.

[9] Taylor, K.C.; White, J; Severinghaus, J; Brook, E; Mayewski, P; Alley, R; Steig, E; Spencer, M; Meyerson, E; Meese, D; Lamorey, G; Grachev, A; Gow, A; Barnett, B (Januarie 2004). "Abrupt climate change around 22 ka on the Siple Coast of Antarctica". Quaternary Science Reviews. 23 (1–2): 7–15. Bibcode:2004QSRv...23....7T. doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2003.09.004.

[10] Mora, C (2013). "The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability". Nature. 502 (7470): 183–187. Bibcode:2013Natur.502..183M. doi:10.1038/nature12540. PMID 24108050. S2CID 4471413.

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